Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.