Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 48.38%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 25.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-0 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.