Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 22.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Krylia Sovetov win it was 0-1 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.