Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for CSKA Moscow had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.