Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fakel would win this match.

Result
Fakel	Draw	Sochi
37.18% ( -0.16)	27.02% ( -0.07)	35.8% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 50.85% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.55% (

0.3)

54.44% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.19% (

0.24)

75.81% (

-0.25)

Fakel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.72% (

0.05)

28.27% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.01% (

0.06)

63.98% (

-0.07)

Sochi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.89% (

0.28)

29.1% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.97% (

0.35)

65.02% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Fakel 37.18%

Sochi 35.79%

Draw 27.02%

Fakel	Draw	Sochi
1-0 @ 10.39% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 3.41% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 2.75% Total : 37.18%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.96% Total : 27.02%	0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.92% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.56% Total : 35.79%