Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 66.9%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 14.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-2 (4.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.