Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Fakel win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nizhny Novgorod would win this match.