Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 60.55%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Orenburg win it was 1-2 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.