Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 50.46%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 24.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Ural Yekaterinburg win it was 0-1 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.