Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.