Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 36.63% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.