Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 51.83%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 25.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.