Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 69.46%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 12.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.