Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Baltika win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Baltika win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Baltika in this match.