Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.