Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Sochi win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.