Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 54.8%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 22.92% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.