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Ligue 1

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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 28, 2024 at 12pm UK
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Lille

Metz
1 - 2
Lille

Mikautadze (23' pen.)
Lamkel Ze (76')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Ismaily (31'), Yazici (44')
David (37'), Bentaleb (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Metz and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Metz

All competitions
Last Game: Le Havre 0-1 Metz
Sunday, April 21 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Lille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Monaco 1-0 Lille
Wednesday, April 24 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.6%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
MetzDrawLille
26.53% (0.048999999999999 0.05)25.86% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)47.6% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Both teams to score 50.57% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.98% (0.037999999999997 0.04)53.01% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.39% (0.032 0.03)74.61% (-0.035000000000011 -0.04)
Metz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.06% (0.060999999999993 0.06)34.93% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.32% (0.065000000000001 0.07)71.67% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.72% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)22.27% (0.004999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.27% (-0.012 -0.01)55.72% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Metz 26.53%
    Lille 47.6%
    Draw 25.85%
MetzDrawLille
1-0 @ 8.18% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-1 @ 6.46% (0.011 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.3% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.27% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.7% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.51% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 26.53%
1-1 @ 12.28%
0-0 @ 7.78% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.85% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 25.85%
0-1 @ 11.68% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.23% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 8.77% (-0.017000000000001 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.62% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 4.39% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.43% (0.0029999999999997 0)
1-4 @ 1.74%
0-4 @ 1.65% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 0.91% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 47.6%

How you voted: Metz vs Lille

Metz
16.7%
Draw
4.8%
Lille
78.6%
42
Head to Head
Dec 3, 2023 4.05pm
Gameweek 14
Lille
2-0
Metz
Yazici (45+2'), David (45+6' pen.)
> Preview
Feb 18, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 25
Lille
0-0
Metz
Zhegrova (83'), Fonte (87'), Djalo (90+7')
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Maiga (22'), Kouyate (67'), Caillard (79'), Amadou (90+7')
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Aug 8, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 1
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3-3
Lille
Centonze (31', 52'), Udol (41')
Bronn (56')
Kouyate (56')
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Ikone (79'), Yilmaz (83')
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Apr 9, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 32
Metz
0-2
Lille

Kouyate (65'), Sarr (76')
Yilmaz (60'), Celik (89')
Fonte (16'), Yilmaz (45+2')
> Preview
Sep 13, 2020 12pm
Gameweek 3
Lille
1-0
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Araujo (88')
Pied (31'), Bradaric (57'), Andre (80'), C. (80'), Celik (84')

Maiga (20'), Bronn (36'), Pajot (43'), Centonze (75')
> Preview