Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.