Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 64.97%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Al Shamal had a probability of 16.51%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.69%) and 1-3 (7.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.2%), while for an Al Shamal win it was 2-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.