Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Arabi win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 39.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Arabi win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (4.82%) and 1-0 (4.73%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.