Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 43%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Rayyan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.48%) and 1-3 (5.27%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.