Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 40.43%. A win for Al Mu'aidar had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.61%) and 0-2 (4.95%). The likeliest Al Mu'aidar win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Gharafa would win this match.