Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Al Wakrah had a probability of 38.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (4.88%) and 0-1 (4.85%). The likeliest Al Wakrah win was 2-1 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Gharafa would win this match.