Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 59.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for NK Lokomotiva had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a NK Lokomotiva win it was 1-0 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.