Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Hajduk Split had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Hajduk Split win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HNK Rijeka in this match.