Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Osijek had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Osijek win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.