Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 36.89%. A win for Hajduk Split had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Hajduk Split win was 1-0 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.