Croatian 1. HNL | Gameweek 4
Jan 24, 2024 at 4pm UK
SRC Velika Gorica

Gorica
2 - 3
Rijeka

Mitrovic (3'), Smolcic (25' og.)
Mitrovic (7'), Raspopovic (17'), Matej Juric (45+1'), Blummel (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Pjaca (35' pen., 53'), Galesic (89')
Sopic (8'), Hodza (30'), Goda (90+5')
Coverage of the Croatian 1. HNL clash between Gorica and HNK Rijeka.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gorica

All competitions
Last Game: Gorica 1-3 Varazdin
Friday, December 15 at 4pm in Croatian 1. HNL

HNK Rijeka

All competitions
Last Game: Rijeka 3-0 Rudes
Saturday, December 16 at 4pm in Croatian 1. HNL

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 56.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Gorica had a probability of 19.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Gorica win it was 1-0 (6.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.

Result
GoricaDrawHNK Rijeka
19.94% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)23.68% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)56.37% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Both teams to score 49.55% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.43% (0.060000000000002 0.06)50.56% (-0.067 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.51% (0.052000000000003 0.05)72.48% (-0.058000000000007 -0.06)
Gorica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.25% (0.033999999999999 0.03)39.74% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.58% (0.029000000000003 0.03)76.41% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
HNK Rijeka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (0.022999999999996 0.02)17.75% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.55% (0.048000000000002 0.05)48.44% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Gorica 19.94%
    HNK Rijeka 56.37%
    Draw 23.67%
GoricaDrawHNK Rijeka
1-0 @ 6.51% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 5.19% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-1 @ 1.6% (0.002 0)
3-2 @ 1.38% (0.0029999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.33%
Total : 19.94%
1-1 @ 11.25% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.06% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 23.67%
0-1 @ 12.19% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 10.54%
1-2 @ 9.73% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 6.07% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 5.61% (0.008 0.01)
0-4 @ 2.63% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.59% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.42% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.12% (0.004 0)
0-5 @ 0.91% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 56.37%

Head to Head
Oct 29, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 13
Rijeka
1-0
Gorica
Pasalic (7')
Pasalic (59'), Selahi (90+3')

Mrzljak (59'), Munksgaard (62')