Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 19.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.