Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 60.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Gorica had a probability of 17.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.38%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a Gorica win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.