Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 61.81%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 13.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 18.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.34%) and 1-2 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.39%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 1-0 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.