Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Varazdin win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 33.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Varazdin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest NK Istra 1961 win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.