Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 54.26%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 22.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.84%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.