Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 55.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 21.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.