Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 52.92%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 22.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-0 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Real Valladolid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
22.84% ( 0.04) | 24.24% ( -0.03) | 52.92% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 51.83% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.44% ( 0.19) | 49.55% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.42% ( 0.17) | 71.58% ( -0.17) |
Real Valladolid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.73% ( 0.15) | 36.27% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.95% ( 0.15) | 73.05% ( -0.15) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.32% ( 0.07) | 18.67% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.99% ( 0.11) | 50.01% ( -0.11) |
Score Analysis |
Real Valladolid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.48% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.98% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 22.84% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.23% | 0-1 @ 11.36% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.54% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.41% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.33% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.27% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.24% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 52.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
3 | Barcelona | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 70 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 48 |
8 | Valencia | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 47 |
9 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
10 | Villarreal | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 42 |
11 | Osasuna | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 37 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 31 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 32 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 25 |
19 | Granada | 32 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 18 |
20 | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |