Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 69.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Mallorca had a probability of 10.81%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.49%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Mallorca win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.