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La Liga | Gameweek 26
Mar 18, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
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Atletico
3 - 0
Valencia

Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
Griezmann (4'), Llorente (42')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last Game: Girona 0-1 Atletico
Monday, March 13 at 8pm in La Liga

Valencia

All competitions
Last Game: Valencia 1-0 Osasuna
Saturday, March 11 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia

 Valencia have shown recent improvement in the league, but they have been so disappointing on their travels, and Atletico are currently in excellent form. We are finding it difficult to predict anything other than a home success on Saturday evening, but it should be a close game in terms of the scoreline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 59.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 17.18%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
59.39% (-1.283 -1.28) 23.43% (0.519 0.52) 17.18% (0.762 0.76)
Both teams to score 45.62% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.67% (-0.812 -0.81)53.33% (0.811 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.12% (-0.692 -0.69)74.88% (0.691 0.69)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.33% (-0.74600000000001 -0.75)17.67% (0.744 0.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.7% (-1.306 -1.31)48.3% (1.305 1.31)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.42% (0.491 0.49)44.58% (-0.492 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.4% (0.394 0.39)80.6% (-0.395 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 59.38%
    Valencia 17.18%
    Draw 23.43%
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
1-0 @ 13.65% (0.1 0.1)
2-0 @ 11.83% (-0.2 -0.2)
2-1 @ 9.56% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.84% (-0.29 -0.29)
3-1 @ 5.52% (-0.156 -0.16)
4-0 @ 2.96% (-0.202 -0.2)
4-1 @ 2.39% (-0.129 -0.13)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.03% (-0.097 -0.1)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 59.38%
1-1 @ 11.03% (0.23 0.23)
0-0 @ 7.88% (0.248 0.25)
2-2 @ 3.86% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.43%
0-1 @ 6.37% (0.285 0.29)
1-2 @ 4.46% (0.153 0.15)
0-2 @ 2.57% (0.148 0.15)
1-3 @ 1.2% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.04% (0.025 0.03)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 17.18%

How you voted: Atletico vs Valencia

Atletico Madrid
87.6%
Draw
7.2%
Valencia
5.2%
97
Head to Head
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
Jan 24, 2021 8pm
Atletico
3-1
Valencia
Felix (23'), Suarez (54'), Correa (72')
Vrsaljko (30'), Savic (76')
Racic (11')
Nov 28, 2020 3.15pm
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Racic (28'), Guillamon (57')
Lato (79' og.)
Niguez (43'), Correa (62'), Llorente (76'), Felix (81'), Koke (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona17122350193138
2Real Madrid16113234132136
3Atletico MadridAtletico16105130111935
4Athletic Bilbao1795326151132
5Villarreal157532725226
6Real Sociedad167361611524
7Osasuna166642225-324
8Mallorca177371620-424
9GironaGirona166462223-122
10Celta Vigo166372527-221
11Real BetisBetis165651820-221
12Rayo Vallecano155461516-119
13Sevilla165471723-619
14Las PalmasLas Palmas165382227-518
15Getafe163761113-216
16AlavesAlaves164391827-915
17Leganes163671423-915
18Espanyol1541101528-1313
19Valencia142481322-910
20Real ValladolidValladolid1623111134-239
> La Liga Full Table


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