| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Granada | 38 | -17 | 38 |
| 19 | Levante | 38 | -25 | 35 |
| 20 | Alaves | 38 | -34 | 31 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Alaves | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 30.66% | 28.39% | 40.95% |
| Both teams to score 45.7% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.46% | 80.54% |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.34% | 35.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.57% | 72.43% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.03% | 28.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.14% | 64.86% |
| Score Analysis |
| Alaves | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 10.65% 2-1 @ 6.81% 2-0 @ 5.49% 3-1 @ 2.34% 3-0 @ 1.89% 3-2 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.03% Total : 30.65% | 1-1 @ 13.19% 0-0 @ 10.33% 2-2 @ 4.22% Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.38% | 0-1 @ 12.79% 1-2 @ 8.18% 0-2 @ 7.93% 1-3 @ 3.38% 0-3 @ 3.27% 2-3 @ 1.74% 1-4 @ 1.05% 0-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.6% Total : 40.94% |