| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 49 | 86 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 69.17%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 12.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 69.17% | 18.66% | 12.18% |
| Both teams to score 48.05% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.56% | 43.45% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.16% | 65.85% |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.57% | 11.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.76% | 36.24% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.26% | 45.75% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.48% | 81.52% |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2-0 @ 12.3% 1-0 @ 11.34% 2-1 @ 9.62% 3-0 @ 8.89% 3-1 @ 6.95% 4-0 @ 4.82% 4-1 @ 3.77% 3-2 @ 2.72% 5-0 @ 2.09% 5-1 @ 1.63% 4-2 @ 1.47% Other @ 3.56% Total : 69.16% | 1-1 @ 8.87% 0-0 @ 5.23% 2-2 @ 3.76% Other @ 0.79% Total : 18.66% | 0-1 @ 4.09% 1-2 @ 3.47% 0-2 @ 1.6% 2-3 @ 0.98% 1-3 @ 0.9% Other @ 1.13% Total : 12.18% |