| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | -5 | 48 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 38 | -14 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Valencia |
| 39.51% | 27.76% | 32.73% |
| Both teams to score 48.14% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.35% | 57.65% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.59% | 78.41% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.54% | 28.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.77% | 64.23% |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.29% | 32.71% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.74% | 69.27% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Valencia |
| 1-0 @ 11.7% 2-1 @ 8.21% 2-0 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 3.44% 3-0 @ 3.08% 3-2 @ 1.92% 4-1 @ 1.08% 4-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.76% Total : 39.51% | 1-1 @ 13.07% 0-0 @ 9.31% 2-2 @ 4.59% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.75% | 0-1 @ 10.4% 1-2 @ 7.3% 0-2 @ 5.81% 1-3 @ 2.72% 0-3 @ 2.17% 2-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 2.62% Total : 32.73% |