| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 38 | 23 | 70 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.77%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 28.21% | 26.01% | 45.77% |
| Both teams to score 51.35% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.75% | 74.25% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.63% | 33.37% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30% | 70% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.07% | 22.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.29% | 56.71% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 8.4% 2-1 @ 6.79% 2-0 @ 4.61% 3-1 @ 2.48% 3-2 @ 1.83% 3-0 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.42% Total : 28.21% | 1-1 @ 12.36% 0-0 @ 7.65% 2-2 @ 5% Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.01% | 0-1 @ 11.27% 1-2 @ 9.11% 0-2 @ 8.3% 1-3 @ 4.47% 0-3 @ 4.07% 2-3 @ 2.45% 1-4 @ 1.65% 0-4 @ 1.5% 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.05% Total : 45.77% |