Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.77%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.