Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.