Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Elche had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Elche win was 1-0 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Elche | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 30.85% | 27.39% | 41.75% |
| Both teams to score 48.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.23% | 56.77% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.29% | 77.71% |
| Elche Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.41% | 33.59% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.77% | 70.23% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.2% | 26.8% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Score Analysis |
| Elche | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 9.82% 2-1 @ 7.06% 2-0 @ 5.36% 3-1 @ 2.57% 3-0 @ 1.95% 3-2 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.42% Total : 30.85% | 1-1 @ 12.93% 0-0 @ 9% 2-2 @ 4.64% Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 11.85% 1-2 @ 8.51% 0-2 @ 7.8% 1-3 @ 3.74% 0-3 @ 3.43% 2-3 @ 2.04% 1-4 @ 1.23% 0-4 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.03% Total : 41.75% |