| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 38 | -13 | 42 |
| 15 | Getafe | 38 | -8 | 39 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 40.45%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Espanyol | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 40.45% | 26.91% | 32.63% |
| Both teams to score 50.65% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.54% | 54.45% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.18% | 75.82% |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.56% | 26.43% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.85% | 31.14% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.52% | 67.47% |
| Score Analysis |
| Espanyol | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 10.95% 2-1 @ 8.5% 2-0 @ 7.29% 3-1 @ 3.77% 3-0 @ 3.23% 3-2 @ 2.2% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.18% Total : 40.45% | 1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.23% 2-2 @ 4.96% Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.9% | 0-1 @ 9.6% 1-2 @ 7.45% 0-2 @ 5.6% 1-3 @ 2.9% 0-3 @ 2.18% 2-3 @ 1.93% Other @ 2.97% Total : 32.63% |