| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 22 | 65 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 3 | 62 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Real Sociedad |
| 33.43% | 27.12% | 39.45% |
| Both teams to score 50.21% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.89% | 55.11% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.64% | 76.36% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.05% | 30.95% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.76% | 67.25% |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.72% | 27.29% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.28% | 62.73% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Real Sociedad |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% 2-1 @ 7.54% 2-0 @ 5.81% 3-1 @ 2.95% 3-0 @ 2.27% 3-2 @ 1.92% Other @ 3.04% Total : 33.43% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.45% 2-2 @ 4.9% Other @ 0.91% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 10.96% 1-2 @ 8.35% 0-2 @ 7.12% 1-3 @ 3.62% 0-3 @ 3.08% 2-3 @ 2.12% 1-4 @ 1.17% 0-4 @ 1% Other @ 2.01% Total : 39.45% |