Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Levante had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Levante win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.