Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Real Sociedad in this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 50.36% | 24.09% | 25.55% |
| Both teams to score 55.26% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.56% | 46.44% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.28% | 68.72% |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.52% | 18.48% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.31% | 49.68% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.79% | 32.21% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.29% | 68.7% |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% 2-1 @ 9.61% 2-0 @ 8.49% 3-1 @ 5.41% 3-0 @ 4.78% 3-2 @ 3.06% 4-1 @ 2.28% 4-0 @ 2.02% 4-2 @ 1.29% Other @ 3.36% Total : 50.35% | 1-1 @ 11.38% 0-0 @ 5.95% 2-2 @ 5.45% 3-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.09% | 0-1 @ 6.74% 1-2 @ 6.45% 0-2 @ 3.82% 1-3 @ 2.44% 2-3 @ 2.06% 0-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 2.61% Total : 25.55% |