Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 42.96%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 28.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Espanyol |
| 42.96% | 28.84% | 28.19% |
| Both teams to score 43.42% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.29% | 62.7% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.75% | 82.25% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.03% | 28.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.13% | 64.86% |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.13% | 38.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.4% | 75.59% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Espanyol |
| 1-0 @ 13.94% 2-0 @ 8.64% 2-1 @ 8.17% 3-0 @ 3.57% 3-1 @ 3.37% 3-2 @ 1.59% 4-0 @ 1.11% 4-1 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.53% Total : 42.95% | 1-1 @ 13.18% 0-0 @ 11.26% 2-2 @ 3.86% Other @ 0.54% Total : 28.84% | 0-1 @ 10.64% 1-2 @ 6.23% 0-2 @ 5.03% 1-3 @ 1.96% 0-3 @ 1.58% 2-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 1.53% Total : 28.19% |