Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 50.6%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Mallorca had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Mallorca win it was 0-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Mallorca |
| 50.6% | 27.16% | 22.24% |
| Both teams to score 43.02% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.23% | 60.77% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.18% | 80.82% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.76% | 24.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.41% | 58.58% |
| Mallorca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.78% | 43.22% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.52% | 79.47% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Mallorca |
| 1-0 @ 14.84% 2-0 @ 10.52% 2-1 @ 8.83% 3-0 @ 4.97% 3-1 @ 4.17% 4-0 @ 1.76% 3-2 @ 1.75% 4-1 @ 1.48% Other @ 2.28% Total : 50.6% | 1-1 @ 12.45% 0-0 @ 10.47% 2-2 @ 3.7% Other @ 0.53% Total : 27.15% | 0-1 @ 8.79% 1-2 @ 5.22% 0-2 @ 3.69% 1-3 @ 1.46% 2-3 @ 1.04% 0-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 1.01% Total : 22.24% |